FairOdds

POLYMARKET · BTC + ETH

See where Polymarket and options disagree

FairOdds compares the latest Polymarket price with our option-implied benchmark price (OIP) to help you find differences worth a closer look.

The idea is simple: crypto options contain forward-looking information about possible future BTC and ETH prices. FairOdds uses that information to estimate an option-implied price (OIP) for each supported Polymarket contract, then compares it with the market’s traded YES price.

Open live dashboard See how it works

LIVE OPPORTUNITIES

Current opportunities to investigate

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Comparing the most actively traded open contracts…

One contract per family, selected by the largest absolute CLOB–OIP wedge among its 10 highest-volume active contracts.

Explore all opportunities

HOW FAIRODDS WORKS

From a crowded market board to a focused comparison

FairOdds first finds an actively traded market, then displays its Polymarket YES price beside its OIP for the same payoff and horizon.

The wedge helps you decide whether the difference deserves more attention.

Prediction-market prices reflect what traders currently pay; OIP adds a second reference point derived from crypto options and aligned to the contract.

The comparison does not declare one correct price; it makes disagreement visible for further investigation.

The same live selections continue below: the largest absolute CLOB–OIP wedge among each family’s 10 highest-volume active contracts.

CLOB
The latest stored Polymarket YES price.
OIP
A maturity-aligned option-implied benchmark price derived from crypto derivatives.
Wedge
CLOB minus OIP, showing the direction and size of the difference.
  1. 01 · LIVE MARKETS

    Find active markets

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  2. 02 · LIVE COMPARISONS

    Compare the signals

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  3. 03 · WHAT TO CHECK

    Investigate the differences

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    Inspect the full history

METHODOLOGY

How FairOdds builds the OIP

FairOdds starts with hourly BTC and ETH volatility surfaces from Block Scholes (opens in a new tab). We estimate each hour a Kou double-exponential jump-diffusion model, which then prices the corresponding Polymarket payoff.

  1. 01

    Options data

    Collect hourly BTC and ETH volatility surfaces and spot indices.

  2. 02

    Black pricing

    Recover strikes and forward option prices using implied volatility, maturity, spot, and Treasury rates.

  3. 03

    Kou calibration

    Fit jump-aware risk-neutral distributions at 7, 14, 30, and 60 days.

  4. 04

    Contract matching

    Price Above, Range, Reach, or Dip, align maturity, and enforce no-lookahead by using only calibration data available at the CLOB timestamp.

The resulting OIP is a maturity-aligned benchmark price—not an executable option quote.

Read the full methodology

BUILT ON CROSS-MARKET EVIDENCE

Prices often align. Wedges differ by contract and market state

The live methodology adapts the framework developed in Cross-Market Pricing in Prediction Markets: A Comparison with Derivatives (M. Fabi, R. Marfè, V. Ruffo, and L. Schönleber, 2026). The study compares 4,860 Polymarket contracts—2,550 BTC and 2,310 ETH—with Deribit option-implied prices, using approximately 4.4 million Polymarket trades and 927,450 hourly CLOB–OIP price observations. Above and Range are terminal-value claims, while Reach and Dip are path-dependent barrier claims.

Read the research paper

KEY RESULTS

What the comparison shows

  • CLOB and OIP mostly co-move

    Average contract-level time-series correlations are 0.88 for Above, 0.77 for Range, 0.88 for Reach, and 0.86 for Dip contracts.

  • Positive wedges dominate the sample

    After hourly wedges are averaged within each contract, 72.6% are positive. The equal-contract mean is +0.72 percentage points, the median is +0.63, and the mean absolute wedge is 2.25.

  • Reach shows the clearest convergence

    The average Reach wedge falls from 3.80 percentage points near the beginning of contract life to approximately zero near expiry. Above also declines broadly, while Range and Dip can rebound in the final segment.

  • Tail outcomes and salient barriers show distinctive wedges

    The Polymarket-implied Kou fit places more probability than Deribit beyond the 5th and 95th percentile return cutoffs: +0.85 and +0.82 percentage points in BTC’s left and right tails, and +0.21 and +0.48 for ETH. When contracts move within 2% of a payoff boundary, Reach/Dip trading activity and wedges rise relative to their pre-event baselines, while the Above/Range wedge falls.

READY TO EXPLORE?

See the full market board

Browse every supported event, compare contracts, and inspect the complete historical CLOB–OIP view.

Explore the full market board

Contact

Start a conversation

Questions about the methodology, a prediction market you would like covered, or an application we have not thought of — get in touch.

lorenzo@zoquantsolutions.com vittorio.ruffo@gmail.com